How will CVs electrify in the future?

The electrification of the CV sector is accelerating, driven by regulatory requirements and improvements in the performance and economics of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). However, the pace of this transition will vary by vehicle type and application due to significant differences in driving patterns and costs.

Building on BCG's CV Powertrain Forecast, over the next decade, we expect the highest adoption rates in light-duty commercial vehicles (LCVs), where BEVs will account for 80 to 85 percent of new vehicle sales by 2035. Buses will follow closely behind, with electric models accounting for 65 to 70 percent of sales by the same time. Medium-duty and short-haul heavy-duty trucks will take a slower path, with BEVs accounting for 55 to 65 percent of sales by 2035. Long-haul heavy-duty trucks will see the lowest rates of electrification, as these applications face additional technical and economic challenges.

As a result, we expect the commercial BEV parc to grow 20-fold by 2035, reaching approximately 21 million vehicles.